When the Minority Rules the Majority

On Monday May 2nd 2011, Canada went to the ballot box. The results of the election will haunt Canadians for years to come. The Conservative party claimed a landslide victory, gaining a majority of 167 seats in the House of Commons. The NDP, riding their "Orange Wave" followed up second with 102 seats in the 308 member body, greatly increasing their presence from the 37 seats they had won during the 2008 election.

Many people will tell you that Canada didn't want this election. I'm here to tell you that Canada desperately wanted this election and was robbed of its choice by an unfair electoral system. Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government had fallen just a month before due to being found in "contempt of parliament" for its ongoing refusal to supply the opposition with details of proposed bills and their cost estimates. The timing was perfect for a renewal of trust in the Canadian government.

So if things were so bad under the minority Conservative government, how did we get here. First, the Canadian voting system must be understood. When Canadians go to the polls, they vote for a MP that will represent their particular riding. The federal party with the most MP's gets the first chance to form the Government of Canada. This is known as the "first past the post" approach. The party with the most seats will go to the Governor General of Canada and ask to form a government. However, if this party does not hold a majority of seats in the House, then the Official Opposition (the party with the second-most amount of seats) can also try to form the government with the assistance of other opposition parties, effectively forming a coalition.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/

What also must be noted is that Canada is not a two-party country. We have FIVE federal parties (four if you don't count the Bloc Quebecois, which I and most Canadians don't) consisting of the Conservatives, the Liberals, the NDP, the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois (BQ). Unfortunately, the playing field is not balanced as there is only one "Right" party - Conservatives, one "Center" party - the Liberals, and three "Left" parties - the NDP, Green Party and the BQ. What this results in is a catastrophic split of the vote.

This is how the Conservatives were able to win a majority of seats while only garnering 39.62% of the vote. The center-left parties took the majority of the popular vote and none of them were left with enough support to take first place. This is outrageous!! How dare a political party with not even 40% of the vote be allowed to govern without check and balance, the country that we live in. Unfortunately, the situation is even worse than most know.

While Prime Minister under the last minority Conservative government, Harper appointed 38 Conservative representatives to the Senate and in doing so, sealed his control over Canadian politics. The Conservatives now have 52 Senators over the Liberals 46, giving Harper unprecedented control of what legislation gets passed in the senate. Power that Harper used to defeat an NDP Climate Change Bill that had passed in the House of Commons.

So now with a majority in the House and a majority in the Senate Harper controls almost every facet of Canadian politics. Adding insult to injury will be the retirement of the current Auditor General Sheila Fraser. The auditor general conducts audits of the federal government, holding them accountable for their actions. Later this year, Stephen Harper will now have the chance to appoint an Auditor General who will turn a blind eye to his misdeeds. He surely has gained control over everything. Just as a tidbit, our current Governor General, David Johnston was also appointed by Stephen Harper.

So how to fix this terrible mess we're in. Unfortunately, we can't. At least not conceivably in the next four years. As the Conservatives have a majority, forcing a vote of non-confidence (which is how governments in Canada are toppled) is definitely out of the question. This leaves our next fixed election which would take place on October 19, 2015. Over four years of majority Conservative rule with the NDP powerless to stop Harper will do terrible things to our country. The corporate tax rate will be cut to an insanely low level of 15%. The public Health Care system we treasure will slowly be transitioned to a two-tier system of public and private. The focus of military patrol in the Arctic to "protect our resources" will suck up billions of dollars. New prisons will be built in a U.S. style attempt to combat crime and the the freedom of the internet as we know it will be infringed upon. I won't even mention attempts of restricting abortion or gay rights that some of Harper's party will no doubt try to accomplish (Yes I know Harper said he wouldn't revisit these issues but in politics, everything is fair game.).

So fast forward to October 19, 2015. If the center-left voters of Canada wish to take their government back, what must be accomplished? As I see it, there are two options.

1. Change the Electoral/Voting system

2. Unite the Center-Left

We have too many choices in an electoral system that doesn't reward choice. The Left needs to unite or the game needs to change. In regards to changing the voting process, I propose a "Ranked Choice Voting" system. Here, the voter lists their chosen candidates in the order of preference. If the candidate of first choice does not secure the majority vote in their riding, then the voter's ballot gets counted toward the candidate of second choice. What this does is to ensure that the winning candidate has a majority of support from the community. In practical terms, it would cripple the Conservative's choke hold on our government.

In order to illustrate this concept, I will take the Ontario riding of Kenora as an example. Conservative Greg Rickford won that riding with 46.85% of the vote. The NDP next at 28.18%, Liberals at 21.8 and the Green party at 2.58%. This means that 51.56% of those polled voted for a party of the center or the left. If the "Ranked Choice Voting" system were in effect then those who voted Green and Liberal as their first choice could have their votes switched to NDP, snatching the seat away from the Conservatives.

I took a look at the poll numbers across the country and if such a system were implemented, there would be a total of 51 possible seat changes from Conservative control to either Liberal or NDP control.

The number of seat changes (from Conservative to Liberal/NDP) in each province are as follows:

Yukon - 1
Western Arctic (Northwest Territories) - 0
Nunavut - 1
British Columbia - 6
Alberta - 1
Saskatchewan - 3
Manitoba - 2
Ontario - 27 (3 in the North, 24 in the South)
Quebec - 4
Newfoundland and Labrador - 1
New Brunswick - 3
PEI - 0
Nova Scotia - 2

So in effect the Conservatives would be reduced to a total of 116 seats (assuming all the listed votes went to Liberals or NDP). This is a way lower number than the current 167 seats they enjoy.

Same name of the UK party

If such a system (or one like it) is not put in place by the next election then the only hope is for the Liberals and the NDP (perhaps with the support of the Greens) to form a new party which I will dub the "Liberal Democrats". Yes there will be difficulties. Yes, there will have to be compromises. But the center-left will claim victory.

This is how the 60% of Canadians who didn't vote for Stephen Harper will have their vengeance.

So how about the immediate future. Well for starters, hardcore Liberal supporters can stop with their attacks on the NDP. Lets be grownups here. The Liberals were handed a crushing defeat because a majority of left-leaning voters saw promise in Jack Layton and the NDP. It also doesn't help that the Conservatives were able to smear your leader, Michael Ignatieff, as an American who only came back to Canada for himself. I'm not saying it's true, I'm just saying they were successful attacks. So ease up on the NDP and support them. Jack Layton's job will be an almost impossible one to do as they are up against a Conservative majority. From here on in, comments about NDP inexperience and the "unrealisticness of their platform" must stop. Lets work together for a united Canada, not a divided one.

Today a new era in Canadian politics has begun. I'm not happy with it. Sixty percent of Canadians are not happy with it, but it is here to stay none the less. If yesterday was your first chance to cast your vote and you were one of the many who were left disappointed on election night, then do not despair. You will have your chance again. And when it comes around, come out in full force and be ready to take your country back.

Click to Digg!!